Abstract: How did the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 affect the evolution of the transnational jihadi movement? The consensus view since the mid-2000s has been that the war fuelled militant Islamism, but there have since been few attempts to specify the effects and identify the mechanisms involved. In this talk I draw on a wide range of unexploited quantitative and qualitative evidence to understand the war's impact on transnational militancy.

Biograph:

A key feature of parliamentary democracy is government accountability vis-à-vis the legislature, but the important question of who speaks for the government—cabinet ministers or unelected bureaucrats, and the institutional underpinnings of this behavior—receives scant attention in the existing literature. We investigate this question with the case of Japan, and data on millions of committee speeches spanning distinct electoral and legislative institutional environments.

Carrier Strike sits at the heart of a Royal Navy that is growing in size for the first time in a generation but as the Queen Elizabeth Strike Group prepares for her inaugural deployment many still question the utility of aircraft carriers. Commander UK Strike Force and Commander UK Carrier Strike Group discuss the opportunities and capabilities a 5th generation Carrier Strike Group affords a nation in a period of increasing competition.

The major geopolitical contest that will shake the world over the next few decades will be the US‒China contest. The lecture will discuss the deep structural forces driving this contest, the mistakes made by both sides and potential solutions. It will also discuss the implications and options for other regions and countries, including ASEAN and Singapore.

The following seminars will take place at 1pm unless otherwise stated. All welcome to join via Zoom, but registration required: https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/calendar.

MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson’s classic article “Macropartisanship” extended the study of voting behavior from static analyses of American elections to the dynamics of partisanship between elections. This launched new frontiers of research, such as studying the effects of
presidential approval and economic indices on aggregate party identification. However, the Macropartisanship literature made an important oversight: Changes in partisanship between elections are usually from one partisan group to identification as an independent, or vice