Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended Europe’s security order, exposing vulnerabilities that continue to shape trans-Atlantic strategy. By early 2025, Russia is advancing slowly in Ukraine’s east, while Kyiv faces resource and manpower strains, and U.S. policy under a new Trump administration introduces uncertainty. Neither side has a clear path to achieving its objectives, and prospects for a ceasefire remain slim. Still, U.S. leverage—sanctions capacity, military weight, and alliance leadership—offers a narrow window to test Moscow’s willingness to negotiate.