People

Jane Green

Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences

Professor of Political Science and British Politics, DPIR
Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College
Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre
AFFILIATION
Government and Politics Network
College
Nuffield College
Office address
Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF

I am a Professor at Nuffield College, a member of the leadership team of the British Election Study and I direct a research centre focusing on accountability, representation, British elections and political science communication beyond academia.

I am interested in supervising PhD students working on any analysis of British Election Study data other related political/attitudinal/election study data, projects on political accountability, economics and voting - in particular economic insecurity and wealth - and also political attitudes, gender, and political representation and elections more broadly. I supervise comparative projects that fall into the above substantive areas. I'm particularly interested in good theory, good designs (including qualitative as well as quantitative) and research with a clear social benefit.

I am passionate about ensuring greater representation and providing mentoring for under-represented groups in academia. 

I currently have space to supervise. Please get in touch if you have a good idea - I'll need to see a research proposal.

Professional Activities

I am Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre; Co-Director of the British Election Study; President of the British Politics Group of the American Political Science Association; Elections Analyst for ITV News' twice BAFTA nominated live election results programmes; winner of the 2015 Political Studies Association ‘Research Communicator of the Year’; a Senior Fellow at the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences.

Previous Posts

Formerly, Professor of Political Science (2013-2018), Cathy Marsh Institute and Politics Department, University of Manchester.

I was a visiting Professor at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University, 2016, and a Visiting Scholar at the Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science, University of California at Berkeley, 2007.

Research

My research focuses on:

  • Political behaviour
  • Electoral accountability
  • British voters and elections
  • Policy impacts, local and national
  • Survey measurement
  • Understanding long-term political change

My research is primarily concerned with assessing the relationship between policy and performance and political attitudes and vote choice.

I am a co-author (with the British Election Study team), of 'Electoral Shocks: Understanding the Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World', OUP. This book explains how the British party system is destabilizing due to the combination of electoral shocks and over time increases in underlying electoral volatility.

I am also author, with Will Jennings, of 'The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters', CUP, 2017. We show how shocks cause substantial changes to party policy reputations, how voters generalise competence assessments across the policy agenda, and how governments suffer costs of ruling due to predictable over-time dynamics in the attribution of blame.

Media

I have provided on-screen commentary and analysis on the following subjects to national and international broadcasters: 

  • Public opinion in the UK
  • Elections (UK, US)
  • British politics

Teaching

On the MPhil degree I teach 'The Politics and Government of a Major State: The United Kingdom'. On the undergraduate PPE degree I contribute to teaching of the option 'Modern British Government and Politics'.

Jane Green

Publications

Journal Articles

2025

Miori, M. and Green, J. (2025) “The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6‐Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024”, The Political Quarterly, 96(1), pp. 37–64.

2024

Grant, Z., Green, J. and Evans, G. (2024) “Care risks: how concerns about looking after older family members increase support for government spending on the retired”, Journal of European Public Policy, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print), pp. 1–32.
Yeandle, A., Green, J. and Le Corre, T. (2024) “Economic Hardship and Support for Redistribution: Synthesising Five Themes in the Literature”, Political Studies Review, 22(4), pp. 1064–1073.
Green, J., Evans, G. and Snow, D. (2024) “The COVID-19 Pandemic in Britain: A Competence Shock and Its Electoral Consequences”, Political Studies [Preprint].
Green, J. et al. (2024) “Connecting Local Economic Decline to the Politics of Geographic Discontent: The Missing Link of Perceptions”, Political Behavior, 47(1), pp. 287–308.
Green, J. and Pahontu, R. (2024) “Mind the gap: why wealthy voters support Brexit”, British Journal of Political Science [Preprint].

2023

Fieldhouse, E. et al. (2023) “Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019”, PS Political Science & Politics, 56(4), pp. 537–545.
Grant, Z., Green, J. and Evans, G. (2023) “Family Matters: How Concerns About the Financial Wellbeing of Young Relatives Shape the Political Preferences of Older Adults.”

2021

Geoffrey, E., Roosmarijn, D. and Green, J. (2021) “Boris Johnson to the rescue? How the Conservatives won the radical right vote in the 2019 General Election”, Political Studies, 71(4), pp. 984–1005.
Green, J. (2021) “Attention! The meanings of attention to politics in surveys”, Electoral Studies, 72.
Green, J. and Shorrocks, R. (2021) “The gender backlash in the vote for Brexit”, Political Behavior, 45(1), pp. 347–371.
Green, J., Timothy, H. and Edward, F. (2021) “Who gets what? The economy, relative gains, and Brexit”, British Journal of Political Science, 52(1), pp. 320–338.
Mellon, J. et al. (2021) “UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured.”

2020

Prosser, C. et al. (2020) “Tremors but no youthquake: Measuring changes in the age and turnout gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British general elections”, Electoral Studies, 64.

2018

Mellon, J. et al. (2018) “Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election”, Parliamentary Affairs, 71(4), pp. 719–737.
Mellon, J. et al. (2018) “Aggregate Turnout Is Mismeasured.”

2017

Fisher, S. et al. (2017) “An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK General Election opinion polls”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A [Preprint].
Green, J. and Jennings, W. (2017) “Party reputations and policy priorities: how issue ownership shapes executive and legislative agendas”, British Journal of Political Science, 49(2), pp. 443–466.

2015

Green, J. (2015) “Party and voter incentives at the crowded centre of British politics”, Party Politics, 21(1), pp. 80–99.

2012

Adams, J., Green, J. and Milazzo, C. (2012) “Who moves? Elite and mass-level depolarization in Britain, 1987–2001”, Electoral Studies, 31(4), pp. 643–655.
GREEN, J. and JENNINGS, W. (2012) “The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: An analysis of valence in Britain, 1979–1997”, European Journal of Political Research, 51(4), pp. 469–503.

2006

Green, J. (2006) “Book Review: Rethinking Britain and Europe: Plurality Elections, Party Management and British Policy on European Integration”, Party Politics, 12(4), pp. 572–574.

2005

GREEN, J. (2005) “Conservative party rationality: Learning the lessons from the last election for the next”, Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties, 15(1), pp. 111–127.

Books

2020

Green, J. (2020) Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World. Oxford University Press.

2018

Green, J. and Jennings, W. (2018) The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters. Cambridge University Press.

Chapters

2021

Green, J. (2021) “2019: a critical election?”, in BREAKING THE DEADLOCK, pp. 174–197.

2019

Fieldhouse, E. et al. (2019) “List of Tables”, in Electoral Shocks. Oxford University Press (OUP), p. xxi - xxii.

2007

Wring, D. et al. (2007) “Political Communications The General Election Campaign of 2005 Preface and Acknowledgements”, in POLITICAL COMMUNICATIONS: THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OF 2005, p. XI - XII.
Green, J. (2007) “Conclusion 2005: Themes and Future Questions”, in POLITICAL COMMUNICATIONS: THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OF 2005, pp. 264–276.

preprint

2021

Green, J. and Pahontu, R. (2021) “Mind the Gap: Why Wealthy Voters Support Brexit”, SSRN Electronic Journal.
Mellon, J. et al. (2021) “UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured”, SSRN Electronic Journal.

2019

Green, J. and Shorrocks, R. (2019) “The Gender Backlash in the Vote for Brexit”, SSRN Electronic Journal.

2018

Prosser, C. et al. (2018) “Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections”, SSRN Electronic Journal.
Mellon, J. et al. (2018) “Aggregate Turnout Is Mismeasured”, SSRN Electronic Journal.

2017

Mellon, J. et al. (2017) “Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election”, SSRN Electronic Journal.
Grant, Z., Green, J. and Evans, G. (no date) “Family Matters: How Concerns About the Financial Wellbeing of Younger Relatives Shape the Political Preferences of Older Adults”, SSRN Electronic Journal.

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