| DPIR

Presidents, assembly dissolution and the electoral performance of prime ministers

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Many European presidents have extensive constitutional powers to affect the timing of early parliamentary elections, which enables them to influence when incumbent governments must face the electorate. This paper examines whether presidents use their assembly dissolution powers for partisan benefit. To date, presidential activism in the electoral arena of parliamentary and semi-presidential democracies remains poorly understood. We hypothesize that presidents use their powers to influence election calling for the advantage of their political allies in government.

Podcast: Comparing Political Violence in Bosnia and Northern Ireland

Read more about Podcast: Comparing Political Violence in Bosnia and Northern Ireland

Siniša Malešević, Full Professor in the School of Sociology at University College Dublin, speaks at the second Ideas and Political Violence seminar.

Podcast: Auxiliary Armed Forces in Civil Wars

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Dr Corinna Jentzsch from Leiden University discusses the concept of auxiliary armed forces and how it applies to both government militias and insurgent police forces, with a focus on the African context in general and the case of Mozambique's civil war in particular.

Ecological inference with distribution regression: Voting behaviour in US elections

Read more about Ecological inference with distribution regression: Voting behaviour in US elections

Seth Flaxman, from the Oxford's Department of Statistics, explains how he has used data to enable predictive analysis of US elections.

By using ecological inference and census data, Seth has estimated not only “exit poll” style results (such as Trump’s level of support among white women), but entirely novel categories. The data analysis has also allowed researchers to explore which characteristics listed in the census predict voting behaviour, and non-voting.

The Virtual Weapon and International Order

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The cyber revolution is the revolution of our time. The rapid expansion of cyberspace brings both promise and peril. It promotes new modes of political interaction, but it also disrupts interstate dealings and empowers non-state actors who may instigate diplomatic and military crises. Despite significant experience with cyber phenomena, the conceptual apparatus to analyze, understand, and address their effects on international order remains primitive. Here, Lucas Kello adapts and applies international relations theory to create new ways of thinking about cyber strategy.

The Politics of Wealth Inequality and Mobility in the Twenty-First Century

Read more about The Politics of Wealth Inequality and Mobility in the Twenty-First Century

An introduction to the 'Ideas and Political Violence' series

Read more about An introduction to the 'Ideas and Political Violence' series

Over the course of Hilary Term (January to March) and Trinity Term 2017 (April to June), the Department of Politics and International Relations is convening a new seminar series on Ideas and Political Violence.

This series has been recorded and is now available in its entirety, along with an introduction from convenors Elizabeth Frazer and Jonathan Leader Maynard, explaining why they chose this topic, which parts of the series they found particularly interesting, and where they hope it will go in future.

What "Brexit Means Brexit" Means to Citizens

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Power transitions and great power management: three decades of China–Japan–US relations

Read more about Power transitions and great power management: three decades of China–Japan–US relations

What kind of challenge did a rising Japan in the 1970s and 1980s pose to the United States, and how does that differ from the challenge that China has posed to US primacy in East Asia since the early 2000s? This article compares and contrasts US responses to these two shifts in relative power, in the process aiming to elucidate how changes that portend a power transition are understood and dealt with and how great powers manage the security order at times of disruption.

Trade Deals vs Democracy: Where the Two Shall Meet

Read more about Trade Deals vs Democracy: Where the Two Shall Meet

In the fall of 2016, Wallonia’s Minister-President Paul Magnette, of Belgium’s Francophone Socialist party, stepped into global spotlight as “the man who made Canada weep”, “the icon of democracy” or a “trade populist,” as he led an underdog campaign to reform the EU-Canada trade agreement under the threat of Wallonia’s veto. The saga concluded with an agreement in December 2016, but the controversy is still raging, especially in light of the Donald Trump presidency. What should be the shape of trade agreements in the XXIst century?

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