How does ethnic stacking as a form of coup-proofing affect military loyalty during major anti-authoritarian protests? Drawing largely on case studies of the Arab Spring, much existing research argues that ethnic stacking generates in-group loyalty and out-group defection, leading stacked militaries to staunchly defend the regime while other armies step aside and allow revolutions to unfold. There is, however, much greater nuance in both ethnic stacking practices and the types of military loyalty shifts that regimes experience.

Analytical models of government formation typically assume low-dimensional real policy spaces. Behaviorally, however, politicians negotiate to form governments in high-dimensional discrete issue spaces. We model these negotiations, leveraging the fact that different politicians typically attach different importance to the same issue, allowing gains from trade to be realized when they negotiate agreed positions on a large package of issues.

In an increasingly unstable global political climate, governments around the world face greater challenges than ever. This year, the Challenges of Government Conference will look at the 'Future of Government', analysing how technological changes, new kinds of politics and different approaches to addressing inequality can be harnessed for the public good.

DPIR, CIS, St Cross College at Oxford present the Global Thinkers of the International Discussion Series. Join Professor Rana Mitter this Wednesday to discuss the global international thought of one of the most controversial figures in modern Chinese history - Chiang Kai-shek. Chiang was a politician and military leader who served as the leader of the Republic of China between 1928 and 1975, first in mainland China until 1949 and then in exile in Taiwan.

This seminar will discuss Russia’s use of cyberspace for revisionist purposes in the international system and the West’s failure - so far - to counter it. Contemporary Russia is no ordinary world power. Its leaders strive to alter the international order more than preserve it. This aspiration embodies ideological as much as material goals. The main targets of Russia's activist foreign policy are the Western liberal nations that dominate the current international order and their aspiring partners in Russia's near abroad. Cyber activity is a central element of this programme of change.

Critical junctures in history can cast long-run shadows on institutional development. The death of Prophet Muhammad in the 7th century ushered in a period of Islamic conquest. By 1100, conquest introduced several unique institutional innovations (e.g., political authority enforced with elite slave soldiers) leading to a “classical” Islamic equilibrium of centralized autocracy that has persisted to the modern period. To substantiate these claims, I demonstrate that countries with greater exposure to Islamic conquest are less democratic in the modern era.