The Divide Over Independence: Explaining Preferences for Secession in an Advanced Open Economy
We evaluate the extent to which individual preferences for secession are affected by anticipated trade, fiscal, and employment shocks following independence. We draw from an original survey conducted in Catalonia before the 2017 regional election, which followed a suspended declaration of independence. We show that material interest informs preference for and against secession, complementing existing scholarship that emphasizes ethnic identity considerations.