The ViEWS project has developed, tested, and iteratively improved a pilot Violence Early-Warning System since January 2017, providing early warnings for the three forms of political violence recorded by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. ViEWS is rigorous, data-based, open-source, and publicly available to researchers and the international community. The talk will present the most recent version of the ViEWS pilot, explaining the methodology, and detail the recent forecasts.

Electoral accountability relies, in part, on voters willingness to cross party lines to select a competent opposition politician. Knowing when voters will cross party lines is essential for democratic representation. I argue that two critical constituency-level factors will jointly influence the likelihood that a voter will vote for an opponent: the partisan geography and the level of electoral competition. Regarding the first, voters have an incentive to vote for opponents in partisan non-segregated districts because, in these settings, politicians cannot channel goods to home areas.

A workshop co-sponsored by DPIR, Department of Social Policy, and the European Studies Centre (University of Oxford), in cooperation with The Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Brussels (based on the report by David Mair for the EU).

Cornelia Navari, of the University of Buckingham, will give an expert talk on Susan Strange, one of the world's leading scholars in international relations and the major European figure in its sub- discipline of international political economy (IPE).

All welcome / bring lunch!