How does exposure to violence shape political behavior? Does criminal violence push citizens to participate more or less in politics? These questions are becoming more and more important as crime rates rise in many parts of the developing world, but especially in Latin America. We argue that exposure to criminal violence, rather than generating anger or fear, perpetuates political cynicism. As crime increases, citizens update their perceptions of the state's capacity and willingness to protect them -- reducing the stakes of political competition.

Malnutrition is one of the greatest global challenges affecting more than 900 million individuals in developing and developed countries across the world. While previous studies have established that malnutrition has serious and lasting negative consequences on individuals' health, education, and labor market outcomes, very little is known about its effects on individuals' political views later in life.

Discussant: Todd Hall (Oxford)

Transitional Leadership Insights from Iraq: Dr.

The following seminars will be given at 2pm on Wednesdays via Zoom. For more information on how to sign up and attend the seminar, please visit our website https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/calendar.
Convenor: Meera Selva

In this context of widespread uncertainty, this timely seminar will examine the threat posed by rising populism to mainstream parties in Europe and the various responses that they might have to offer in the run-up to Brexit and in its aftermath.

Estimates of treatment effects using observational data can be biased due to confounding, model misspecification, and other reasons. A placebo test offers a complementary diagnostic for evaluating these threats to inference by checking for a relationship that should be found in the data if the main estimates were biased, but should be absent otherwise. Drawing on a comprehensive survey of recent empirical work in political science, this paper defines placebo tests, introduces a typology of tests, and analyzes what makes them informative (both in ideal and non-ideal circumstances).

Discussant: TBA

Sri Lanka: Dr Vinya Ariyaratne, President of Sarvodaya, Sri Lanka’s largest grassroots development organisation active in 15,000 villages; Lead Facilitator of the One Text Initiative in the Sri Lankan conflict; Adjunct Faculty at Brandeis University, USA. A medical doctor and public health expert, he has been personally engaged on the frontlines in providing emergency relief country-wide during and after the civil war, in natural disasters and now during COVID 19. He has advised and collaborated intensively with the WHO, World Bank and several UN and humanitarian bodies.

The following seminars will be given at 2pm on Wednesdays via Zoom. For more information on how to sign up and attend the seminar, please visit our website https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/calendar.
Convenor: Meera Selva