Prior to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, analysts predicted a quick and decisive victory for Russia over Ukraine due the Russian military benefiting from a long and sustained modernization program. It soon became clear that analysts' projections of a quick and decisive victory for Russia were shockingly incorrect. Why was the perception of the Russian military so divergent from its performance in the Ukraine war and why were assessments of the Russian military apparently so inaccurate?

Every few years a new concept captures the attention of a large part of the strategic studies community. These buzzwords – such as hybrid warfare, grey zone conflict, counterinsurgency or the revolution in military affairs – are both ambiguous and powerful, sparking a wave of publications only to eventually be superseded by the next buzzword. How can we explain this recurring cycle? This talk looks at the dynamics and underlying ideas about war driving this process. It argues that these buzzwords are the outcome of fallacies inherent in much current strategic thinking in the West.

Given the return of Great Power Competition, could democratic governments have been better at anticipatory policymaking? Have weapons of mass distraction diverted attention from the persistent challenge of war? To what extent has a self-referential fascination with ourselves, our universalism and challenges to it from within (like radicalisation) diminished our ability to read the prevailing winds of how most states read the world? Have the twin conceits of cultural narcissism and presentism diminished the ability of major democracies to navigate a volatile world?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent attritional war has upended pre-war assumptions about "future war." Futurologists within the broad security penumbra increasingly argued that conflict was becoming hybrid, ambiguous and shadowy, with some arguing that the tools and assumptions of major war were becoming obsolete. While all wars to some degree are "hybrid", the unambiguous, industrial-scale clash in Ukraine is emphatically not what they expected. Why did bright minds fall prey to such expectations? The failure had several causes.

Three North Korean refugees share extraordinary stories about their life in North Korea, their journey towards freedom, and the adventures that followed. The speakers are brought to you by Freedom Speakers International, a South Korea based NGO whose mission is to empower North Korean refugees through public speaking.

The speakers:
Youngnam Eom (North Korean refugee speaker)

Diplomats are often the face of Chinese foreign policy. Despite the important role that diplomats play in informing and implementing China's foreign affairs work, however, comparatively little attention has been afforded to their professional mobility. Dr Jost and colleagues have introduced original data documenting over 11,000 career assignments of 1,357 senior Chinese diplomats since 1949 and leveraged these data to explore which types of demographic traits and professional experiences contribute to their promotion and survival.

Richer countries are rapidly ageing and productivity is stagnating.

Meanwhile, industry - the motor for rapid economic development in the past - employs ever fewer people worldwide. And yet there is still hope for greater, and shared, global prosperity. Declining working age populations in rich countries are demanding ever-more services. A rising, increasingly educated working age population in lower income economies can provide them.

After a summer of extreme heatwaves, devastating wildfires and deadly flooding across the world, all made worse by climate change, the Rt Hon Sir Alok Sharma, President of COP26 in Glasgow 2021, will discuss the ongoing climate crisis with Director of the Oxford Martin School, Professor Sir Charles Godfray.

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges.

For better and for worse, these disruptions are the product of unprecedented capabilities to shape the environments that sustain human societies. Can Earth’s newest and most disruptive force of nature be redirected to achieve a better future for all of life in the Anthropocene?

Adama Dieng, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, July 2012 to July 2020, will discuss the UN's role in the global collective responsibility to prevent genocide and other mass atrocities.