The main objective of this paper is to provide localized evidence about the mechanisms that may link oil wealth with the use of armed force against civilians by non-state armed groups in Colombia. Violence is studied in all three of the standard dimensions: onset, duration and intensity. This paper reports evidence on a subnational variant of a mechanism termed by the literature state-as-target.

The programme will consist of panel discussions on Alan Ryan's contributions to normative political and social theory and the history of political thought.

Lunch will be provided.

At the ‘conversation style’ event, “Rethinking the Peace Negotiations in Colombia”, we will take stock of the major challenges and opportunities in the context of the peace talks with the FARC, reflect on the current situation of the peace deal implementation, and consider the way forward in light of the elections. The event will be co-hosted by CCW’s "From Conflict Actors to Architects of Peace" (CONPEACE) programme and the Blavatnik School of Government.

A growing literature shows that elections are a poor mechanism to hold corrupt incumbents accountable. In that context, can institutional checks and balances compensate for the shortcomings of elections in fighting corruption? This paper examines a possible source of institutional accountability: the presence of politically insulated civil servants with oversight authority over the actions of incumbents. I examine the effect of politically insulated bureaucrats on a type of incumbent rent-seeking: the use of political budget cycles.

All welcome
Tea, coffee and biscuits from 11.50

Can the China Pakistan Economic Corrridor (CPEC) affect regional stability and the prospect for peace? Will Russia, Iran, and China be part of a new regional order at this crossroads of empire? This event will feature and interactive discussion of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative and its impact on geopolitics.