Is forecasting political violence feasible? Experiences from the ViEWS project.
The ViEWS project has developed, tested, and iteratively improved a pilot Violence Early-Warning System since January 2017, providing early warnings for the three forms of political violence recorded by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. ViEWS is rigorous, data-based, open-source, and publicly available to researchers and the international community. The talk will present the most recent version of the ViEWS pilot, explaining the methodology, and detail the recent forecasts.