In terms of international security dynamics, we live in a world of nuclear prominence and, simultaneously, a world of growing cyber persistence. This presentation will explore the distribution of power dynamics associated with these two distinct strategic environments and the different approaches to national security they necessitate. The talk will then examine the crucial question of how these two strategic environments might intersect, and how the radically shifting technological terrain of cyberspace, including the advent of more powerful machine learning, will impact this intersection.

This high-level conference will consider the options and implications of Brexit, from the perspectives of the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe and the rest of the world. Please see programme for more information.

I consider a model in which two states choose how much to arm and whether to attack in successive periods. Arms are useful not only for deterrence or taking territory, but also because they influence the resolution of a set of disputed issues. It is shown that states can cooperate on the issues by limiting military competition, but only as far as a “war constraint” allows. Factors determining the tightness of the war constraint imply hypotheses about the international determinants of military eort and thus the costs of anarchy.