Climate change mitigation policies often impose concentrated costs in exchange for diffuse future benefits. The associated burden has spurred opposition from stakeholders and a prominent backlash from populist and radical right (PRR) parties, which politicize green policies as elitist impositions on everyday citizens. This raises the question whether mainstream political actors react to the electoral pressure from the PRR and become less supportive of green policies. While the theoretical argument is compelling, it is difficult to provide a systematic test for such an effect.

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended Europe’s security order, exposing vulnerabilities that continue to shape trans-Atlantic strategy. By early 2025, Russia is advancing slowly in Ukraine’s east, while Kyiv faces resource and manpower strains, and U.S. policy under a new Trump administration introduces uncertainty. Neither side has a clear path to achieving its objectives, and prospects for a ceasefire remain slim. Still, U.S. leverage—sanctions capacity, military weight, and alliance leadership—offers a narrow window to test Moscow’s willingness to negotiate.