Widespread fear that hosting refugees will mean more terrorism in host states is at the heart of the `refugee crisis'. Yet, we lack rigorous evidence for such claims. This article theoretically unpacks how and under what conditions transnational refugee movements plausibly lead to different types of terrorist outcomes. Combining original data with a multi-pronged approach involving a treatment-placebo design as well as instrumental variable estimation, we provide systematic and robust evidence that sheds new light on the security implications of forced migration.

Deeply divided societies have long been seen as terrible terrain for democracy. Yet some countries across Asia (India, Indonesia) have managed to establish more durable democracies than other similar countries (Pakistan, Malaysia). Why? In my new book project, I argue that a country’s founding national narrative, if inclusive, can be an important resource for overcoming social divisions and stabilising democracy.