Making and Breaking Governments 2.0: Using A1 to Build Better Theory

Theoretical models have struggled to make sharp predictions of which governments form in parliamentary systems and how long these governments last. We develop an AI algorithm to solve an analytically intractable coalition bargaining game. While AI models have penetrated most aspects of daily life, they have largely been ignored by political scientists. Formidable successes by AI models in solving games like Chess, Go, and especially a bluffing game like Poker, suggest they also have the potential to attack difficult political games.

Race, Class, and What Else? Policies and Politics in Four American Cities

Since the 1960s, the study of policy and politics in American cities – and to a considerable degree, in the American national government – has revolved around the role of race or the interaction of race and class. My own work has largely followed that path. This project, however, examines the degree to which race/class hierarchy should remain the dominant paradigm in research on inequality in the United States. I consider four policies in four large American cities in order to see how well race/class intersection explains their trajectories.

Energy transition, financial markets and new EU interventionism

In times of greater government interference with economic markets, this paper studies the conditions under which energy markets listen to policymakers and what implications these have for climate change and the energy transition. Building on the case of EU industrial policy announcements in the aftermath of the Russian invasion into Ukraine, we theorize that different types of policy announcements will affect investment and capital (re)allocation decisions in energy markets and that some of them may have had hopeful implications for green energy companies, if only for a short amount of time.

What can opinion polls tell us about Europe in a changing world?

Over the last four years, the Dahrendorf programme has participated in the design and analysis of a series of opinion polls, first intra-European, in partnership with the eupinions project of the Bertelsmann foundation, and more recently reversing the gaze to look at Europe from the viewpoint of a number of major extra-European powers, in partnership with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Reports on the polling results can be found at https://europeanmoments.com/.

Closed Deal: Private Authority of Companies in Cyber Conflict and Crises

The Russo-Ukrainian War has raised significant questions about not only the role of cyber operations in conflict but also the measure of private sector engagement and participation in these contexts. But neither is Ukraine the only testing ground, nor is the presence and gap-filling of private companies in conflict and crises new. This lecture will explore the antecedents, enablers and recent examples of how companies have sought to legitimize and expand their presence in providing cybersecurity in conflict and crises.

Mass and Multipolarity: Qualitative and Quantitative Balancing after Western Hegemony

The international system is returning to multipolarity—a situation of multiple competing major powers—drawing the post-Cold War ‘unipolar moment’ of comprehensive US-led Western political, economic, and military dominance to an end. The rise of China, belligerent assertiveness of Russia, and associated return of multipolarity at the systemic level in turn carry implications for European states’ strategic posture, including that of the UK.
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