In this talk, James Mahoney discusses a conjuctural theory of revolutions. Political revolutions are defined as rapid transformations of a sovereign territory’s political order, including its national government, political regime, and state institutions.

The replacement of Apartheid-style government with multi-racial democracy in South Africa constituted one of the most profound, challenging and celebrated regime changes of the late 20th century. Unfortunately, a majority of citizens and most local commentators now characterize the past quarter century of democratic government as highly disappointing. When seen in the context of a global retreat of democracy, such views may contribute to growing skepticism about the viability of democratic government, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

This talk will be based on a book project, in which I theoretically and empirically investigate the link between state-implemented Internet controls and state-sanctioned violent repression. I identify two main forms of control, which are the restriction (or disruption) of the Internet on the one hand, and digital surveillance on the other hand. Governments face a trade-off: they can either restrict access to the Internet and with it diminish opposition groups’ capabilities, or they can permit the digital exchange of information and monitor it to their own advantage.

Decentralization is thought to facilitate poverty reduction by giving power over resource distribution to officials with local knowledge about where resources are most needed. However, decentralization also implies less oversight and greater opportunities for local officials to divert resources for political or personal ends. We investigate this tradeoff by exploring the degree to which Kenya’s premier decentralized development program—the Constituency Development Fund—targets the poor.

In the heady days after 1945, the authority of the United States was unrivalled and, with the founding of the UN, a new era of international co-operation seemed to have begun. But seventy-five years later, its influence has already diminished. The world has now entered a post-American era, argues Michael Pembroke (in 'America in Retreat: The Decline of US Leadership from WW2 to Covid-19', Oneworld, 2021), defined by a flourishing Asia and the ascendancy of China, as much as by the decline of the United States.

In How China Loses: The Pushback against Chinese Global Ambitions (Oxford University Press, 2021), Luke Patey argues that China’s predatory economic agenda, headstrong diplomacy, and military expansion undermine its ambitions to dominate the global economy and world affairs. He shows that countries around the world —rich and poor, big and small—are pushing back and recognizing that engaging China produces new strategic vulnerabilities to their independence and competitiveness.

After the collapse of Yugoslavia, the new states opted to eradicate the past, as such an approach seemed more convenient for the new national projects. But did Yugoslavia disappear completely during transition? In answering this question, the panel reflects on the influence of Yugoslavia during and after its dissolution, identifying and analysing the legacies left of this unique country through the prism of continuities and ruptures between the past and the present.