The most likely friction points between China and the United States are located at sea. It is not clear that existing security studies scholarship—based on territorial, nuclear, and civil conflict—applies comfortably to the maritime domain. As one example, a “denialist” school in security studies argues that counterintervention technology makes defense dominant in the region. Nonetheless, the US Navy remains a fleet designed for an offensive approach of power projection and sea control.

The recent focus of the EU on the application of the rule of law in member states, including other political reforms and conditionality in the Western Balkan accession states, shows that the issue of democratic politics has reached a critical juncture in many parts of Europe. But how big is the problem of democratic backsliding and how credible is the fight against illiberalism? Our SEESOX seminar series is looking at the quality of democracy in South East Europe, through thematic and comparative country perspectives.

Discussants: Tuuli-Anna Huikuri and Ben Garfinkel

Discussant: Adam Shindler

Electoral behavior is growing increasingly volatile and unpredictable in many established democracies. Despite scholarly interest in the correlates of electoral volatility, we still know very little about the deep-seated reasons and determinants of the growth in electoral volatility. In this paper, I argue that a key predictor of the volatility of electorates lies in citizens’ group-based cross-pressures.