Do Campaign Contribution Limits Curb the Influence of Money in Politics?

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Over 40% of countries around the world have adopted limits on campaign contributions to curb the influence of money in politics. Yet, we have limited knowledge of whether and how these limits achieve this goal. Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits institutional rules on contribution limits in Colombian municipalities, we show that looser limits increase the number of public contracts assigned to donors to the elected candidate.

Legacies of Yugoslavia on the region’s post-communist transition

After the collapse of Yugoslavia, the new states opted to eradicate the past, as such an approach seemed more convenient for the new national projects. But did Yugoslavia disappear completely during transition? In answering this question, the panel reflects on the influence of Yugoslavia during and after its dissolution, identifying and analysing the legacies left of this unique country through the prism of continuities and ruptures between the past and the present.

The struggle for redress: Victim Capital in Bosnia and Herzegovina

How do we explain the differences in which victim groups are recognized and redressed in a post-war state? Opening with a puzzle about the diverse patterns of recognition and redress across victim groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina after 1995, this chapter introduces the topic of the book, its key concepts and arguments. Bosnian survivors of sexual violence and torture, families of the missing and killed persons, paraplegics and sufferers from other injuries have been granted varied types of redress across Bosnia.

Finding friends for Global Britain

Agora Oxford is excited to introduce our major event of Hilary 2021, the Global Britain Roundtables. Experts on the UK's relationships with the US and China will lead virtual roundtables in search of solutions to the complex trade-offs involved in the UK's post-Brexit 'Global Britain' strategy. Admission is free and all are welcome. Please register using the Eventbrite.

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Social Media Virality: Predicting Social Media Cascades over Arbitrary Time Horizons

In this work, we consider the problem of "information cascades" - i.e., the virality of social network content on social media - and the specific problem of predicting future cascade size over arbitrary time horizons, given information about the content's initial popularity growth. These predictions are useful for a number of applications, including early detection of potentially harmful viral content in online social networks. With application to a large collection of content on Facebook over a two-month period, we predict cascades size using an approach based on Hawkes point process models.
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