Government Debt and the Electoral Cycle
In sovereign bond markets, investors and credit ratings agencies are attentive to political events and institutions. Their assessments of default risk and creditworthiness hinge, in part, on elections: when elections generate uncertainty for investors, they can lead to increases in volatility and risk premiums. While political economists have analyzed election-related dynamics on the supply (creditor) side, they have paid scant attention to the demand (debtor government) side.