Power Preponderance, Assurance, and War

Join us for an academic talk by Professor Alexandre Debs which discusses his ongoing academic research. In this talk, Professor Debs presents arguments from his working paper which asks: how could power imbalance lead to war? Some argue that power preponderance causes war by undermining the credibility of assurances. Others contend instead that non-credible assurances are inconsequential, fueling future negotiations without affecting the conditions for war.

Limit to Win It: A Typology of Competitive Arms Control Practices

Arms control is traditionally conceptualized as a cooperative undertaking, reducing risk and obviating the need for wasteful expenditure. But arms control can also be employed for competitive ends, shaping competition in ways that asymmetrically advantage certain parties. While previous literature has identified individual examples of competitive arms control within certain cases, the full range of competitive arms control practices has not been assessed comprehensively.

Beyond the Hybrid Fleet: A Naval Design to Deter PRC Gray Zone Operations

The U.S. Navy remains optimized to deter and defeat a traditional amphibious invasion of Taiwan, while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is more likely to pursue a slow, layered gray zone campaign to achieve unification without triggering decisive conflict. This mismatch risks leaving the United States prepared for the least likely course of action while vulnerable to the most probable one. Effective deterrence in this environment will require a Navy capable of imposing immediate, scalable, and primarily non-lethal costs across multiple domains.

Just War, Human Augmentation and Doctors Designing Weapons

Professor Rickard is a surgeon in the Royal Navy and Emeritus Professor of Military Surgery at the Royal College of Surgeons of England, a chair that has been continually appointed since the Crimean War. His PhD was in a bioengineering topic related to microvascular surgery and as Professor of Military Surgery he has supervised doctorate students in topics as diverse as the subcellular response to blast and the ethics of live tissue training. Clinically, he specialises in musculoskeletal cancer surgery and in trauma reconstruction.

The Art of Coercion: Reid Pauly, Brown University

Summary of the Event: Reid Pauly is the author of The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma (Cornell University Press, 2025). In his new book, Pauly presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics. Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail only a third of the time. Pauly argues that coercion often fails because targets fear punishment even if they comply. In this "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario, targets have little reason to obey.

Book Talk: Russian Intelligence and Putin's Secret War

Join us for a timely discussion of Tradecraft, Tactics, and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin’s Secret War, in which Sean M. Wiswesser draws on decades of experience to examine the doctrine, methods, and strategic logic underpinning contemporary Russian espionage. The talk situates intelligence activity within broader frameworks of hybrid conflict and coercive statecraft, analyzing how Russian Services employ deception, active measures, and covert action under Putin.
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