What's the Half-Life of the Economic Vote? (About a Year and a Half)

Economic voting theory assumes that voters focus their attention on the recent past. But testing this assumption is difficult and past research remains inconclusive. I estimate voters' economic time frames using a new model that measures the economic vote and voter myopia at the same time. I show that voter myopia is real and that after around a year and a half, economic voting affects half in size. After five years, they approach zero. My findings have positive implications.

Campaign Promises and Legislative Leadership Posts

Do members of parliament (MPs) transform campaign promises into subsequent actions once in office? While previous research often finds congruence between election pledges and policymaking activities in legislatures at the political party level, we know less about this relationship at the individual MP level. By assembling novel data on issue emphasis in Japanese candidate manifestos and legislative positions, we study whether campaign communication is a meaningful signal of legislative activities.

Fairweather friends: Why Chinese polluters want more regulation

In countries where regulatory enforcement is erratic or unpredictable, governments often face a trade-off between stable investment and effective regulation. In China, for instance, firms respond to regulatory uncertainty by cultivating political ties or bribing local officials to protect them from unexpected interventions. These ties mitigate perceived threats to investment, but also obstruct leaders from regulating widespread risks—such as illegal pollution.

On the Causes of Party System Institutionalization in Asia

Party system institutionalization has been traditionally viewed as an essential condition for the consolidation of democracy (Mainwaring, 1999; Hicken and Kuchonta, 2014; Casal Bértoa, 2017). However, there is a far less agreement in the literature about what institutionalizes party systems in the first place. Seeking to fill this gap, the current paper, building on a mixed-method approach, aims to provide an answer to the question of how such institutionalization occurs and why the degrees of institutionalization vary across countries.

Relating Voter ID Laws to Voter Turnout: Going Beyond the United State

Understanding the determinants of electoral turnout has long been the focus of political science, with important meta-analyses from Geys (2006) and Smets and Van Ham (2013). These and other studies have been used to understand the cost of voting. However, one potential cost of voting that is not well understood is voter identification (ID) laws. Currently, findings on voter ID laws are mixed and only exist within the United States (Highton 2017). Yet it is important to understand voter ID in a comparative context because the costs of voting may be different outside of the US.
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