Study points to what might enhance peacekeeping ‘rule-of-law’ impact
Summary
The study seeks to explain when UN peacekeeping missions are more likely to succeed at improving the rule of law. It identifies how UN personnel levels, activities, and timing impact success in rule of law reforms. It concludes that UN intervention may be a more effective mechanism for restoring the rule of law than the prevailing pessimism would lead us to believe.
Data
The data used is from UN missions in Africa. The study compares the number of uniformed (military and police) and civilian personnel deployed to each mission, how many of these are allocated specifically to rule-of-law related tasks, and the nature and extent of rule-of-law activities pursued.
Key Policy Findings
The study focusses on reforms targeting the host state’s justice chain: police forces, courts, prisons and laws. It finds positive correlations in how UN personnel, activities, and timing affect the success of UN rule of law reforms:
- UN personnel. Overall, the study finds that the more UN personnel deployed, the more likely it is for the rule-of-law to improve. But the extent of the improvement appears to depend on which additional personnel are added:
- There is an improvement both with more military and more civilians but it is greater with additional civilians deployed, and when such personnel are specifically assigned to rule of law tasks.
- Within uniformed personnel, additional UN police officers are more highly correlated with improvements in promoting the rule of law than more military troops:
- Within civilian personnel, additional international staff, who tend to be better paid and enjoy higher status within UN missions, are more highly correlated with rule-of-law improvements than more national staff.
- Activities. The study finds that the rule of law improves when UN missions actually pursue rule-of-law activities in the field, but that the correlation is larger when they engage host states in the process of reform, rather than bypassing them. It finds that this remains important “even in settings where host states are weak or predatory”. The study suggests that the most effective mechanisms for engaging with the host state are likely to be a combination of education, inducement, persuasion, and oversight.
- Timing. The study finds that the correlation between a UN presence and the rule of law is weak or even negative during ongoing civil wars, but strongly and consistently positive after a peace process has begun. One challenge for UN peace operations (which tend to focus on the “hard” cases) is therefore that they are often expanded in size at the time a conflict intensifies and the threats to rule of law have increased. They are thus often mandated to pursue more rule of law activities during periods of conflict precisely when those activities are less likely to succeed. The study therefore concludes that UN missions should not expect to make much progress towards promoting the rule of law when conflict is ongoing.
Policy summary prepared by Elizabeth Russ.