Event

Placebo Tests for Casual Inference

Date
8 May 2020
Time
12:15 UK time
Speakers
Andy Eggers
Where
Zoom
Series
Politics Research Colloquium
Audience
Members of the University only
Booking
Not required
Delivered via Zoom
Estimates of treatment effects using observational data can be biased due to confounding, model misspecification, and other reasons. A placebo test offers a complementary diagnostic for evaluating these threats to inference by checking for a relationship that should be found in the data if the main estimates were biased, but should be absent otherwise. Drawing on a comprehensive survey of recent empirical work in political science, this paper defines placebo tests, introduces a typology of tests, and analyzes what makes them informative (both in ideal and non-ideal circumstances). We discuss examples of placebo tests that effectively address different types of bias; we also point out tests and types of tests that we argue are largely uninformative, and we highlight the problem of null hacking in the design of placebo tests.