Event

Minority Candidates and the Electability Curse: Exploring Causes and Remedies through the Lens of LGBTQ+ Candidates

Date
20 May 2025
Time
12:30 UK time
Speakers
Gabriele Magni,
Where
Nuffield College, SCR (A staircase), New Road OX1 1NF
Series
Nuffield College Political Science Seminars
Audience
Members of the University only
Booking
Not required
Discussions around electability are central in election campaigns, often targeting minority candidates. This paper examines two related questions: Why do electability concerns strongly affect minority candidates? How can we contrast such concerns? Focusing on voters’ perspective, I argue that three main factors fuel electability concerns, including perceptions of lack of electoral support for minority candidates, voters’ own prejudice, and the scarcity of successful examples of minority candidates. I also explain that providing voters with information on actual public support for minority rights and candidates reduces electability concerns. I test my expectations on minority candidates by focusing on LGBTQ+ candidates. I rely on three original datasets: the largest survey to date of LGBTQ+ candidates, which includes about 500 candidates; and two voter surveys, each conducted with about 2,000 U.S. respondents, where I embedded conjoint and priming experiments. Reducing electability concerns is important to avoid that they become self-fulfilling prophecies.